Gold and stocks are falling together. That's the real signal.

Transcript

Tom Gold and stocks are falling together — and that's not a rotation, it's a liquidation. I'm Tom, and this is Investment Flash New York Edition.

Marie And I'm Marie, with Gerald. It's Tuesday, June twenty-third. Big moves overnight: gold tumbling, tech futures selling off, but also a quantum catalyst from D.C. that nobody's talking about.

Gerald Yeah, and a bubble model flashing red. Lively morning ahead.

Tom Gerald, yesterday you were selling the UK ETF — with the dollar flexing again, that call is looking sharp this morning.

Gerald To be fair, the pound is just weak across the board. But Tom, you were buying Nvidia — how's that looking with Nasdaq futures down two and a half percent?

Tom Hey, it's a long-term hold. Semis are still partying, we're just nursing a hangover. But let's get into the first signal: gold below forty-two hundred, silver down five percent.

Marie Bloomberg and the Journal both cite dollar strength and inflation fears overpowering peace talks. Sell the gold ETF, sell the silver ETF, buy the US dollar ETF — the momentum is clearly down.

Gerald Look, after a two-thousand-five-hundred-percent one-year surge, this pullback looks more like profit-taking than a regime change. But if gold breaks below four thousand, CTAs unwind crowded longs and it gets ugly.

Tom Right, so sell gold, sell silver, buy the dollar. But this isn't isolated — it's hitting tech hard, and the macro is connected.

Marie Exactly. Nasdaq 100 futures down two and a half percent, Korea's Kospi plunging ten percent from its record. That twenty-thousand-percent one-year run in Korea was a classic blow-off top.

Gerald Twenty thousand percent? That's not a return, that's a typo. But the South Korea ETF is still two hundred percent above its fifty-two-week low — there's plenty of air underneath if risk-off continues.

Tom Ha — I mean, short the Nasdaq 100 ETF, short the South Korea ETF, buy the VIX. The VIX is up thirteen percent but only at nineteen — room to run higher if this selloff deepens.

Marie Wait, Gerald, you sound skeptical? But the breadth here is global — it's not just tech. Gold, emerging market currencies, all risk assets are being dumped.

Gerald Fair, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF is only one percent off its fifty-two-week high. If this is just pre-market noise, shorts get crushed on a snapback.

Tom But the bubble model later says stocks are overvalued — the narrative is building, and the pre-market action suggests the message is landing.

Marie Still, Gerald's right to watch credit markets — they're completely silent. If high-yield spreads stay tight, this selloff is likely contained. That's the glaring gap.

Gerald Exactly. Now, something that's completely ignoring the selloff: Trump just signed twin executive orders to accelerate quantum computing and defend against quantum decryption.

Tom This is huge! A national security priority, likely funneling billions into R&D and contracts. The market hasn't priced this in — it's the most underappreciated catalyst on the board today.

Marie The quantum ETF is up fifty percent year to date and within one percent of its high. But IBM, a quantum leader, is twenty-four percent below its own high and trades at a reasonable eighteen point seven forward P-E. That's a cheaper entry.

Gerald Eighteen point seven forward isn't crazy for a quantum play. But IonQ is the pure play, down thirty-one percent from its high — unprofitable, high beta. That's your kind of bet, Tom.

Tom When government checks start flowing, the revenue hits. It's an under-the-radar catalyst.

Marie Agreed.

Gerald Spot on.

Tom Exactly. Ha, Gerald agreeing with me on a tech play? Somebody check the temperature.

Gerald Even a broken clock, Tom. Alright, let's talk Indian IT — now there's value even I can love. Infosys down forty percent year to date, forward P-E of twelve.

Marie That's deep value. Bloomberg notes seasonality and contrarian buying could lift it, but the question is whether we're early or just wrong.

Tom The numbers are starting to work. The India ETF is only eleven percent off its high, so a tech rebound there would pull the whole index up.

Gerald To be fair, if U.S. recession fears hit outsourcing demand, Indian IT gets caught in the crossfire. That's the risk.

Marie Another India angle: Zerodha's Nikhil Kamath is betting on energy transition stocks, reinforced by the US-Iran war. War adds urgency to energy independence — it's a geopolitical hedge.

Tom The solar ETF is up eighteen percent year to date, still nineteen percent below its high. The clean energy ETF is up twenty-six percent. Dual narrative: climate plus security — these look under-owned.

Gerald War as a green catalyst — that's a new one. But I'll give you that, it's a clever spin.

Tom Wait until you hear my quantum double play. But first, bitcoin miners — JPMorgan warns the network is more sensitive to price swings as many miners operate near breakeven.

Marie MARA up fifty percent year to date but thirty-seven percent below its high. Riot up over a hundred percent, only six percent off its high. Shorting into weakness could pay off if bitcoin drops.

Gerald High beta to bitcoin, crowded trades. In a risk-off tape, shorting them skews the reward favorably.

Tom But if bitcoin holds, short squeezes in these names are violent — borrow costs are already brutal.

Marie True, but crypto correlates to risk assets now. If equities keep dropping, miners dump with them.

Gerald Yeah, it's a correlated bet. Alright, something solid: CRH digging deeper into the U.S. construction boom, says FT Lex.

Tom CRH is down twelve percent year to date with a forward P-E of sixteen. The industrials ETF hit a fresh fifty-two-week high — so CRH is a relative laggard with catch-up potential.

Marie Multi-year capex cycle, infrastructure spending is real — not flashy, but solid.

Gerald Exactly — solid, like me.

Tom Ha, I'll take the flashy quantum play any day.

Marie You and your shiny objects, Tom.

Tom Guilty. Now, the macro cascade: the Thai baht hit a one-year low on rate gap expectations with the U.S. — a clean dollar-strength play.

Marie And the emerging markets ETF is near its fifty-two-week high, but currency pressures could erode returns. Short EM as a hedge.

Gerald If the dollar keeps rising, EM currencies get smoked. Same trade as the gold short, but with higher beta.

Marie It's all connected — dollar, gold, EM, risk-off. A macro cascade.

Tom Connected.

Gerald Totally.

Tom And then there's that bubble model — researchers claim they cracked the code on predicting market bubbles, and it's flashing red on today's stock prices.

Gerald Ah, the model that predicted nine of the last five recessions. It's a warning, not a timing tool, but it gives the bears a story.

Marie Still, with the S&P 500 ETF only two percent off its high, any correction starts from elevated levels. The narrative supports the selloff.

Gerald That's the risk. This selloff could reverse and trap shorts, especially if bonds catch a flight-to-safety bid.

Marie And on that note: billionaire Jeff Yass argues the public misreads federal debt — net debt of thirty-one point six trillion is what matters, not the gross figure. That could ease bond crisis fears. The long-duration Treasury ETF is sitting at its fifty-two-week low.

Tom That's huge contrarian upside. A sentiment shift on debt sustainability could spark a massive short-covering rally in long bonds.

Gerald Bonds are deeply oversold. Long long-duration Treasuries, long intermediates — downside appears limited. But if risk-off continues, the long dollar, short everything trade still works.

Marie The cleanest expression of today's signals might be long volatility via VIX calls, or a pair trade: short the Nasdaq 100 ETF, long long-duration Treasuries. That protects against a snapback.

Tom As always, none of this is investment advice. We're just talking through the signals.

Marie If you're just finding us, hit follow on Spotify or check investmentflash.com for the full digest with charts and sources.

Gerald And we're back tomorrow at seven-thirty a.m. London time. Until then, keep an eye on credit spreads — if HYG starts blowing out, it's a different ballgame.

Tom See you then, buddies.