Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · New York Edition · 09:00 New York

Gold and stocks are falling together. That's the real signal.

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Signals

Gold and dollar

Gold slumped below $4,200, and silver plunged as much as 5%, as inflation fears and a stronger dollar overpowered progress in US-Iran peace talks. Bloomberg and WSJ both cite the dollar and macro headwinds as the drivers, with UUP +0.2% last session. Gold's 2,560% one-year surge makes this pullback look more like profit-taking than a regime change — but a break below $4,000 could trigger CTAs to unwind crowded longs.

UUP

Buy US Dollar — The dollar is explicitly cited as the headwind for gold; UUP is at its 52-week high, and both sources expect the macro to keep it supported.

$28.36 +0.21%
GLD

Sell Gold — Two sources flag dollar strength and inflation risks driving the selloff; GLD off 3% this week and 25% below its 52-week high, so momentum is clearly down.

$384.6 -0.65%
SLV

Sell Silver — Silver is more volatile and fell 5%, with both articles noting its plunge alongside gold; SLV is 46% below its 52-week high, so the downtrend is intact.

$58.91 -1.01%

Tech selloff

Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 2.5% and Korea's Kospi plunged 10% from its record, driven by concerns about frothy valuations after a two-month surge. Bloomberg reports the risk-off spread globally, with QQQ last session -0.36% but deeply underwater pre-market. The Kospi's 20,147% one-year run is a classic blow-off top; EWY is still 214% above its 52-week low, so there's plenty of air underneath. VIX is rising but not panicking, suggesting an orderly but broadening selloff that could persist.

VIX

Buy CBOE Volatility Index — The selloff spread globally, and VIX is up 13.7% last session, but at 19.64 it's still below panic levels, so there is room for further upside if equity declines deepen.

$19.64 +13.65%
QQQ

Sell Nasdaq 100 — Futures down 2.5% on valuation fears; QQQ is only 1% off its 52-week high, so the sell-off has room to run if momentum turns.

$738.0 -0.36%
EWY

Sell South Korea equities — Kospi dropped 10% from a record, and EWY is up an extraordinary 20,147% in a year, making it the poster child for overextended risk assets.

$219.0 -0.08%

Quantum computing

Trump signed twin executive orders to accelerate US quantum computer development and harden defenses against quantum threats, a direct federal boost for the sector. CoinDesk reports the orders signal a national security priority that could funnel billions into R&D and contracts. QTUM, the quantum ETF, is up 50% YTD and within 1% of its 52-week high, reflecting early enthusiasm. But IBM, a quantum leader, is 24% below its own 52-week high and trades at 18.7x forward P/E — a cheaper entry point into the theme.

QTUM

Buy Quantum ETF — The executive orders are a concrete catalyst; QTUM is already near highs but could extend if contracts start flowing.

$168.6 +0.38%
IBM

Buy IBM — IBM is a quantum leader and is 24% below its 52-week high with a forward P/E of 18.7, offering a cheaper way to play the federal push.

$252.2 +1.25%
IONQ

Buy IonQ — IonQ is a pure-play quantum computing company that benefits from government contracts, but it is 31% below its 52-week high and unprofitable, making it a higher-beta bet.

$58.32 +3.13%

Indian IT

Indian IT stocks are battered but could get a lift from seasonal tailwinds and contrarian buying, Bloomberg reports. Infosys is down 40.7% YTD and 64% below its 52-week high, yet it trades at a cheap 12.2x forward P/E — a valuation that typically attracts value hunters. The broader India ETF (INDA) is only 11% off its 52-week high, but the IT sector's weight means a rebound could pull the index higher. The call is early, but the numbers are starting to work in favor of a trade.

INFY

Buy Infosys — Bloomberg highlights seasonality and contrarian buying; INFY is down 40.7% YTD and at a low forward P/E, offering a deep-value entry.

$10.77 +1.89%
INDA

Buy India equities — Indian IT is a major sector weighting, so a seasonal bounce in tech would lift INDA, which is already only 11% below its 52-week high.

$49.92 +0.69%

Energy transition India

Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath sees energy transition stocks as the key India bet, reinforced by the US-Iran war, Bloomberg reports. The war adds urgency to energy independence, making renewables a geopolitical hedge. TAN is up 18.4% YTD and 19% below its 52-week high, while ICLN is up 26.5% YTD and 9% below its high, both with room to run if policy tailwinds materialize. INDA provides broader India exposure to the theme, but the pure plays look under-owned.

TAN

Buy Solar ETF — Kamath singles out energy transition; TAN is up YTD but still below highs, and the war narrative adds a catalyst.

$61.11 +0.87%
ICLN

Buy Clean energy ETF — Global clean energy demand could rise on the same war-driven urgency; ICLN is up 26.5% YTD but still 9% below its 52-week high.

$21.63 +2.51%
INDA

Buy India equities — India's domestic energy transition push benefits the broad market; INDA ties in but is less targeted than the thematic ETFs.

$49.92 +0.69%

Bitcoin miners

JPMorgan warns the bitcoin mining network is becoming more sensitive to price swings as a growing share of miners operate near breakeven, CoinDesk reports. If bitcoin drops further, miners could be forced to shut down, accelerating hashrate declines and hitting mining stocks. MARA and RIOT are both up sharply YTD (49.8% and 102.2%) but carry high beta to BTC. Shorting them into weakness skews the risk/reward favorably, especially as the broader risk-off mood weighs on crypto.

MARA

Sell MARA Holdings — JPMorgan flags hashrate sensitivity to price drops; MARA is up 49.8% YTD but 37% below its 52-week high, signaling a crowded trade ripe for reversal.

$14.85 +4.43%
RIOT

Sell Riot Platforms — Similar exposure to hashrate risk; RIOT is up 102.2% YTD and only 6% below its 52-week high, leaving little margin for error.

$28.63 +1.89%

US construction

CRH is digging deeper into the US construction boom, FT Lex reports, positioning itself for a bigger share of infrastructure spending. The stock is down 12% YTD but trades at 16.6x forward P/E, which is not demanding for a sector riding a multi-year capex cycle. The broader industrial sector (XLI) hit a fresh 52-week high last session, up 15.1% YTD, confirming the construction theme is intact. CRH looks like a relative laggard with catch-up potential.

CRH

Buy CRH — FT Lex says CRH is expanding in the US construction boom; CRH is down 12% YTD with a reasonable forward P/E, offering a value entry.

$111.3 +0.01%
XLI

Buy Industrials ETF — The construction boom lifts the whole sector; XLI is at a 52-week high, showing momentum is strong.

$181.8 +0.74%

Thai baht & EM

The Thai baht fell to a one-year low on expectations of a widening interest rate gap with the US, Bloomberg reports, and domestic demand faces multiple headwinds. Short THB is a clean macro play on dollar strength and rate divergence. EEM, the EM ETF, is up 26.6% YTD and just 1% below its 52-week high, but currency pressures could erode returns, making a short EM equity overlay a sensible hedge.

THBUSD=X

Sell Thai baht — Bloomberg ties the baht's drop to the rate gap; the trend is fueled by Fed hawkishness, and the baht is at a one-year low with no support in sight.

EEM

Sell Emerging markets — EM currencies face headwinds from a strong dollar; EEM is near its 52-week high, so a correction driven by FX would be sharp.

$71.21 +0.59%

Bubble model

Researchers claim to have cracked the code on predicting market bubbles, and their model is flashing red on today's stock prices, MarketWatch reports. The signal is a warning, not a timing tool, but with SPY only 2% off its 52-week high and QQQ 1% off its high, any valuation correction would hit from elevated levels. The model's track record gives bears a narrative to lean on, and the pre-market tech selloff suggests the message is landing.

SPY

Sell S&P 500 — MarketWatch bubble model suggests overvaluation; SPY is near all-time highs, making a mean-reversion short attractive if the model proves prescient.

$744.4 -0.31%
QQQ

Sell Nasdaq 100 — Tech-heavy QQQ is the epicenter of froth; at 1% below its 52-week high, a bubble pop would hit hardest here.

$738.0 -0.36%

US Treasuries

Billionaire trader Jeff Yass argues the public misreads federal debt, noting that the net debt of $31.6 trillion is more relevant than the $39.1 trillion gross figure, MarketWatch reports. If this view gains traction, it could reduce fears of a bond market crisis, supporting Treasuries. TLT is hugging its 52-week low, down 1.1% YTD, and IEF is off 2.2% YTD — both are deeply oversold. A sentiment shift on debt sustainability could spark a sharp short-covering rally in longer-dated bonds.

TLT

Buy Long-duration Treasuries — Yass's debt framework could ease supply fears; TLT is at its 52-week low, offering a huge contrarian upside if the narrative shifts.

$86.09 -0.76%
IEF

Buy Intermediate Treasuries — Less duration risk than TLT but still benefits from a bond rally; IEF is also near its 52-week low, so downside appears limited.

$94.00 -0.38%

Most original take

Omkar Godbole · CoinDesk · 23 Jun 2026

Trump signs orders to build a quantum computer and protect against the one that could break encryption

Trump signed twin executive orders to accelerate US quantum computing development and simultaneously protect against encryption-breaking quantum computers. This is the first major federal push in the sector, signaling a national security priority that could funnel billions into quantum R&D and contracts. The market has not yet priced in the scale of government backing, creating an under-the-radar catalyst for quantum-related stocks.

Read original ↗

Our view

Gold and stocks are falling together, which is rare and signals a regime shift out of the 'everything rally' into something more defensive. Today's signals collectively point to a double unwind: the tech froth of a 20,147% one-year return for Korea's Kospi, and the safe-haven unwind in gold after a 2,560% annual surge. This isn't a rotation — it's a liquidation. VIX at 19.64 and rising, but not panicking, suggests the move is orderly but broadening. The bubble model's flashing red simply gives the selloff a narrative.

The case against this read: gold's slump could be a healthy correction in a bull market, and the tech selloff is still within normal pre-market noise — Nasdaq futures down 2.5% after a 20% YTD gain on QQQ. The Trump quantum orders and CRH's construction play are reminders that real economic catalysts exist, and they could reignite risk appetite. The biggest risk is that this selloff stalls and reverses sharply, trapping shorts. With TLT at its 52-week low, a sudden flight to safety would crush the 'long dollar/short everything' trade.

A notable absence: the press is silent on credit markets. With equities and gold both falling, high-yield spreads should be widening, but we see no discussion. That's a glaring gap — if credit stays tight, this selloff is likely contained; if spreads blow out, it's systemic. Watch HYG in the coming sessions.

The cleanest expression of today's signals might be long volatility via VIX calls, or a short QQQ/long TLT pair trade if bonds catch a bid from risk-off. Failing that, the quantum play is the most under-appreciated catalyst on the board.

Yesterday's signals, today

From the New York Edition on 22 Jun 2026 — 2/3 signals moved in the predicted direction.

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