SpaceX fear sinks tech; Iran strikes light oil hedges.

Transcript

Tom For real, just when you think the AI trade is invincible, a private rocket company shows up and sucks all the oxygen out of the room.

Marie Honestly, it’s about time we saw some gravity. Welcome to Investment Flash for June tenth, twenty-twenty-six, the New York Edition. I'm Marie, joined as always by Tom and Gerald.

Gerald Yeah look, gravity is a bit of an understatement. The technology sector ETF took a nearly two percent hit in the last session, and the Nasdaq one hundred followed it down.

Tom It’s wild though, buddy. People are saying the angst over a potential SpaceX I P O is what’s causing the dive. Are we really selling Microsoft and Nvidia because Elon might go public?

Gerald The thing is, it's not just SpaceX. Look at the semiconductors. Short sellers are piling back into the sector ETF, which dropped over one and a half percent yesterday.

Marie Wait — wait a second. This isn't just about one I P O. This is about one of the most crowded long trades in history finally feeling the squeeze. We’re nine percent off the highs in semis now.

Tom No way, Marie. This is a classic shakeout. Look at the VanEck semiconductor ETF — it’s only down one point two percent last session. This is just profit-taking before the next leg up.

Gerald Fair enough, but profit-taking doesn't usually involve short interest spiking like this. Analysts revising price targets after the stock has already dropped is basically a free retirement plan for some of these guys.

Tom ha — alright, alright. I see where you're going with that, Gerald.

Marie Look, while tech is wobbling, the big money is moving into the plumbing. Did you see the thirty-five-billion-dollar AI infrastructure platform Broadcom, Apollo, and Blackstone just launched?

Gerald Honestly, that's the real story. Apollo jumped four percent on the news. They're basically building a private credit fortress to fund Anthropic’s growth.

Tom Exactly.

Marie One hundred percent.

Gerald That's the whole story.

Marie It’s the largest direct lending facility ever for AI. It shows that even if the public markets are nervous about chip stocks, the private credit world is insatiable.

Tom And Broadcom is the winner here too! Their price-to-earnings ratio is only about twenty. Compare that to the rest of the semi-complex and tell me it's not a deal.

Gerald The thing is, Tom, even twenty times earnings isn't exactly 'cheap' in a high-rate environment, but Blackstone jumping five percent suggests the market loves this fee-income play.

Marie Hold on, I'm going to push back here. We're talking about Apollo being sixteen percent below its fifty-two-week high. This credit move is a massive structural shift, not just a one-day trade.

Gerald Alright, fair point. But speaking of structural shifts, have you seen the absolute mess in the oil markets? It’s a total split brain.

Tom Right? Bloomberg reports US and Iran exchanging strikes, which usually means oil mooning, but then the US oil fund dropped nearly three percent last session.

Marie See, THIS is what I mean about conflicting narratives. The Financial Times says Hormuz transits are climbing. Supply is actually hitting the market while the bombs are falling.

Gerald Yeah look, it’s a three-way shoving match. You’ve got geopolitical fear, improving physical flows, and then the Wall Street Journal reporting on crypto sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenue.

Tom Wait — crypto sanctions? How does that work?

Marie It’s fascinating. They’re restricting access to cryptocurrency to squeeze Iran's ability to move oil money outside traditional banks. It’s a literal economic war on the blockchain.

Gerald Which is why we’re watching the oil ETFs like USO and the Brent oil fund without taking a position yet. The tape is just too noisy.

Tom But Gerald, if the strikes escalate, shouldn't we be looking at gold? The SPDR Gold ETF fell over one and a half percent yesterday. That feels like a missed entry.

Marie Not so fast. Defense stocks actually caught the bid gold missed. The defense ETF was up one point four percent. The market is pricing in more missiles, not necessarily a currency collapse.

Gerald It’s the same story with Petrobras in Brazil. It rose slightly while everything else was bleeding. A value play at four times forward earnings while everyone else fights over tech multiples.

Tom Speaking of tech multiples, Apple fell over three and a half percent yesterday. MarketWatch is calling this a historic upgrade cycle that investors are totally missing.

Gerald Oh, calling the bottom on an AI hardware cycle — that's what, six bottoms we've called this year, Tom?

Marie hah — yeah, yeah. He's got you there, Tom.

Tom oh come on, thirty times forward earnings for the biggest consumer tech company on earth during an AI revolution? That's a gift!

Marie I'm with Tom on the hardware side, though. Look at Micron. UBS says we're in a memory supercycle. Micron is up two hundred percent this year and it's still at a price-to-earnings ratio of eight.

Gerald Right, and that's the problem. When the P-E is that low on a cyclical like memory, it usually means the market thinks the earnings have already peaked.

Tom No way, buddy. Applied Materials is up eighty percent year to date and they're seeing 'unprecedented visibility' into supply plans. This isn't a peak, it's a plateau at the summit.

Marie Let’s shift gears to the auto sector. GM is following Ford into sodium-ion batteries. Ford got a bump from this a few weeks ago, but GM was basically flat yesterday.

Gerald The thing is, GM is trading at six times forward earnings. It’s a value play with an EV lottery ticket attached. Ford has already had its run, down four percent this week.

Marie Honestly, I think the real warning today comes from Barclays. Their strategist is turning cautious on US stocks because of 'exploding investor euphoria' and the growth of leveraged ETFs.

Tom Euphoria? The S&P five hundred ETF only slipped zero point three percent last session. That’s not euphoria, that’s a nap.

Gerald Tom — Tom, we are three percent off all-time highs while leveraged ETFs are seeing record inflows. That is the definition of froth. It’s like buying a house because the neighbors just bought a boat.

Marie pff, okay Gerald, the boat analogy is a bit much. But he’s right, the risk-reward here is getting very tight, especially with the dollar and rates being so quiet despite the Iranian strikes.

Tom Look, I’ll take the other side. If tokenization really unlocks a five-trillion-dollar market like Securitize is saying, we’re going to need a lot more than just a few chip stocks to power that.

Marie Exactly.

Gerald Totally.

Tom That's it.

Marie It’s a structural narrative for Ethereum and Bitcoin, even if it doesn't show up in the price today. But as always, none of this is investment advice.

Gerald Yeah look, our view is that dispersion is increasing. Tech, energy, and safe havens are all pulling in different directions. Active management is finally beating passive here.

Tom The cleanest trade? Probably straddles on the oil ETF. If the press can't agree on whether oil is going up or down, the volatility is the only thing we can count on.

Marie Well said. If you're finding these daily deep dives helpful, hit follow on Spotify or check out investment flash dot com for the full digest with the charts.

Gerald Alright, I'm off to go find some value in a world that apparently wants to buy SpaceX at any price.

Tom ha — see ya, buddy. We’ll be back tomorrow's London Edition at seven-thirty a.m. London time.

Marie See you then.