Iran blinks. Nvidia says buy the dip.

Transcript

Tom Iran blinks, and Nvidia's CEO says buy the dip — after a brutal tech selloff, is it time to reload? We'll sort it out.

Marie Good morning, it's Monday, June 8th, the New York edition. I'm Marie, with Tom and Gerald. Markets got hammered last session, but the signals today are all about leaning into the fear.

Tom No kidding — remember yesterday we said sell the Nasdaq? QQQ dropped another five percent. But now Nvidia's CEO is out saying the selloff in tech stocks is a buying opportunity.

Gerald Yeah look, sixteen times forward earnings for a stock that's pinned to hypergrowth... that only makes sense if AI capex holds. And with a growth scare that's a big if.

Marie But hold on — Huang isn't just some analyst, he's the guy signing the capex checks. He says the AI buildout is just beginning, and the stock is thirteen percent off highs. We've seen these dips get bought before.

Tom Exactly.

Marie Right?

Gerald Analysts revising price targets after the fact is basically a free retirement plan, but okay.

Tom Ha, fair. But seriously, Huang runs the company. When he says buy, the market usually listens.

Marie And the bigger story today: Iran blinked. They announced an end to attacks on Israel after Trump's plea for a ceasefire. That's a huge tail risk evaporating.

Tom Oil down two point seven percent, gold crushed three point six — that's risk-on. I'm buying SPY here.

Gerald Middle East peace is never permanent. Selling oil right now might be early — USO is still up ninety-three percent year to date.

Marie No but that's exactly the point — the signal is to fade the geopolitical premium. Gold is unwinding, equities catch a relief bid. It's a short-term play.

Tom So we've got Nvidia and Iran both screaming "buy the dip." That's a rare convergence.

Marie And then there's the Permian. CNBC analysts are pounding the table on dividend payers — Viper, Permian Resources, Chevron. Yields up to five percent.

Tom Chevron with the Hess deal unlocking value, still thirteen percent below its high — I like that. Viper yielding five percent and tied to Diamondback's inventory duration? Sign me up.

Gerald Five percent yield only works if oil prices hold up. If the Iran de-escalation knocks down the risk premium, these names could slip.

Marie Exactly. You can't have it both ways. But as a relative value income play, they offer a cushion. And they're trading well below highs.

Tom Look, even with a dip, oil at these levels is massively profitable. The free cash flow covers those dividends, and we're still in a structural supply deficit.

Gerald "Structural supply deficit" with oil down nearly three percent last session. Alright.

Marie Okay, anyway — watch Blackstone. They're looking to sell two billion dollars of private fund stakes by bundling them into bonds. Big test for the secondary market in PE.

Gerald This is a key read on private market appetite. If it flops, BX shares — already down thirty-nine percent from their high — could slip further, and high-yield bonds would take a hit.

Marie And I'm worried about the structure — packaging illiquid stakes into tradeable bonds right when markets are fragile. Feels like 2007 CLO vibes.

Tom If demand falters, that's a signal private valuations are too high. But if it works, it validates a huge pool of illiquid assets.

Gerald Deja vu from 2007. But hey, better risk models, right?

Tom Yeah, famously work.

Marie Indonesia's foreign reserves fell for a fifth straight month — the longest slide since 2018. The rupiah is getting hammered, the ETF hit a fifty-two-week low.

Gerald That's a canary in the coal mine for EM outflows. When reserves drain like this, central banks eventually impose controls, and equities crash. Sell EIDO, rupiah.

Tom But is it systemic? Indonesia alone doesn't tank global markets, right?

Marie Add Turkey last week, it's a pattern. EM stress is a headwind for risk appetite globally. We can't ignore it.

Tom Fair. Short Indonesia makes sense.

Marie Goldman Sachs just downgraded H-shares in favor of A-shares for AI exposure. FXI down twelve percent year to date, while ASHR is up five.

Tom Finally, a way to play Chinese AI without the Hong Kong index hangover. Rotating onshore — I'm long ASHR.

Gerald China A-shares are still China. If growth disappoints, AI theme or not, it will sell off. And the property overhang is still there.

Marie But the trade is relative: sell H-shares, buy A-shares. No directional macro call needed. Goldman's making that exact point.

Tom Exactly.

Gerald One hundred percent.

Marie And this one's wild — China's rare-earth exports to Japan dropped eighty percent. That's a massive supply shock. Long REMX, short Japan equities.

Tom REMX up fifteen percent year to date, still twenty-one percent below its high. I'm in. This is a geopolitical hedge on top of a secular supply deficit.

Gerald But if global demand for EVs and electronics slips, rare-earth prices will come off regardless of export cuts. It's not just supply.

Marie Gerald, an eighty percent cut isn't a subtle policy tweak — it's a weaponization of materials. The supply disruption trumps demand concerns right now.

Tom Sell EWJ. Japanese manufacturers will feel the input cost pain on autos and tech.

Gerald Alright, Beijing's serious about using rare earths as a lever. Fine.

Marie Michael Saylor posted his famous dot chart again, hinting at more bitcoin buys by Strategy.

Tom MSTR down seventy-four percent from its high, but a relief bounce could be violent. When Saylor buys, the market follows.

Gerald A tweet isn't a buy signal. And Strategy is under growing scrutiny.

Marie But corporate buying often provides a floor. It's high-risk, but the speculation is right there. A bounce could be sharp.

Tom Saylor's dots are the new Fed dots — unpredictable and forward guidance that never quite lands.

Gerald Ha, at least his dots are sometimes green.

Marie CoinDesk has the most original take: Bybit is pushing tokenized US stock IPOs, starting with SpaceX, letting retail buy at underwritten prices. It directly challenges Wall Street's I P O monopoly.

Tom This is massive — bypassing the banks to give retail a fair shot at pre-I P O allocations. Finally.

Gerald The SEC won't allow this quietly. Tokenized securities are a grey area, and this is a lawsuit magnet.

Marie But if it works, it changes everything. The regulatory battle will be intense, but the convergence of crypto and traditional finance just accelerated.

Tom Alright, our view: the tape was ugly — SPY down two point six, QQQ down four point eight, NVDA down six point two. But the signals scream contrarian. Iran blinked, Huang called the dip.

Gerald Counterargument: this could be the start of worse. NVDA cheap only if AI capex holds, and EM stress hints at a macro chill. Bond markets aren't risk-on — IEF hugging lows suggests recession risk. If Friday's C P I prints hot, dip-buyers get run over.

Marie And the missing piece: the monetary policy calendar. The ECB meets this week, and a single article warns of a 2011-style error if they hike into weakness. The Fed's blackout period looms. The real regime driver — whether central banks are still tightening into a slowdown — is under-discussed.

Tom But when a CEO like Huang says buy the dip after a thirteen percent drop, I listen. The secular tailwinds are real.

Gerald You listened to Cisco in 2000 too, buddy.

Tom Okay, point taken. But this time it's... not different, but still.

Marie Cleanest expression of today's cross-currents: long Permian income like Chevron and Viper versus short growth — say, QQQ — as a hedge against further de-rating. And the rare-earth supply shock is a volatility play on Beijing.

Gerald If you truly believe Huang, a long QQQ with a stop under six eighty is disciplined. But keep it tight.

Tom I'm in. Iran takes a tail risk off, and Permian yields are a safe haven in a growth scare.

Marie As always, none of this is investment advice. Today's signals: buy Nvidia, S&P, Permian; sell gold, Indonesia, H-shares; buy A-shares, rare earths; and maybe bitcoin on Saylor's hint.

Tom If you're just finding us, hit follow on Spotify — or check investmentflash.com for the full digest with charts and sources.

Marie We'll be back tomorrow, seven-thirty London. See you then.