Oil geopolitics
Two people were killed in a drone attack on Aramco's Shaybah field and the US ordered some personnel out of Saudi Arabia, which pushed crude higher. The FT's own tanker data tells the opposite story: Gulf producers are shipping 24.6mn barrels a day, above the 23.3mn before the conflict, with ships rerouting and Hormuz loadings accelerating. USO sits 2% below its 52-week high and is up 132% this year, so the premium is doing the work, not the barrels. The tell is whether attacks start hitting loading infrastructure rather than personnel.
Buy Frontline — FT alone notes ships rerouting around the Gulf, which adds tonne-miles — Frontline at 9.8x forward and 14% below its 52-week high is the one piece of the complex paid for distance rather than fear.
Hold Energy equities — XLE is 1% below its 52-week high and up 49.3% YTD on the same premium, at 19.4x trailing earnings with no cushion if FT's export data holds.
Sell Airlines — Fuel is an airline's largest variable cost, and JETS is already -6.6% YTD and 23% below its 52-week high, so a sustained crude premium lands straight on margins.
Watch Crude oil — Bloomberg reports crude advancing on the Shaybah attack while FT's 24.6mn b/d export figure undercuts the scarcity case — at 2% below its 52-week high and +131.7% YTD, USO is priced for the headline, not the flow.