Long bonds
US Treasuries are showing tentative signs of reclaiming haven status, Bloomberg reports, and the trigger is the wobble in the AI trade rather than anything the Fed said. Positioning is described as heavily short after this year's bond slump, which makes the consensus trade the one that hurts if the bid persists. TLT is 13% below its 52-week high and only 5% above its low, so the short side has had a one-way year — and it has already given back 2.6% in a week. The tell is whether the bid survives a genuinely risk-on session.
Buy Long-duration Treasuries — Bloomberg alone flags the haven bid against heavily short positioning, and TLT is 2.6% higher on the week but only 5% above its 52-week low — the squeeze has barely started.
Buy 7-10 year Treasuries — Same haven thesis with less term premium: IEF sits 2% above its 52-week low and is 1.1% higher on the week, so the curve is doing the work rather than duration risk.
Sell Inverse long Treasuries — The inverse long-bond ETF is the crowded side of Bloomberg's warning and has already surrendered 5% in a week, which is what a squeeze looks like early.