AI credit is cracking first. Equities haven't noticed yet.

Sell CoreWeave — Bloomberg's Credit Weekly names CoreWeave as the trigger for a junk-market freeze-out, and at 57% below its 52-week high and 3% off the low the stock is already discounting a stalled financing engine — size it small.

“Junk bond buyers are increasingly refusing to finance tech startups as CoreWeave's troubles raise doubts about how AI companies fund themselves.”

Sell High yield credit — AI-linked issuers are the marginal borrower being pushed out, but HYG already sits 1% above its 52-week low and is down 4.7% YTD, so this is a crowded short rather than an early one.

Buy Intel — Nikkei's exclusive has the CEO saying Washington won't steer strategy while SoftBank and Nvidia sit on the register, but an 11.3% weekly slide against a 128% YTD gain says the market wants proof before re-rating further.

Buy Semiconductors — Government equity support for Intel plus $21bn of Japanese money into GlobalFoundries fabs keeps a floor under the complex, though SOXX's 9.4% weekly drop shows the floor sits well below $493.

Hold Nvidia — Nvidia owning a slice of a rival fab and designer is strategically awkward and financially immaterial, and at 13.5x forward with the stock 12% below its 52-week high we're not selling it on governance.

Sell Kioxia — Nikkei's own reporting has Kioxia down two-thirds from its peak as CXMT ramps Chinese memory supply, and nothing in the Intel interview suggests that reverses.

Buy Mitsubishi UFJ — Higher domestic yields widen Japanese bank lending margins, and Washington has now publicly blessed the policy mix that delivers them.

Hold Japan equities — A firmer yen squeezes exporters while helping domestic demand, so we hold rather than add — EWJ is 5% below its 52-week high and up 16.7% YTD.

Sell Yen — Ueda's inflation ceiling comment and Browne's 'positive inflation trajectory' both pull forward hike expectations, and two Nikkei interviews in one day is the closest thing to a coordinated signal we get.

Sell Long Treasuries — Rising JGB yields repatriate Japanese capital and keep pressure on the US long end; TLT bounced 2.6% on the week but is still 8% down YTD and 13% below its 52-week high.

Sell China large cap — A December de-risking instrument adds a fresh tariff-style overhang on Chinese exporters, and FXI is already 15% down YTD and 18% below its 52-week high — this is a slow bleed, not a shock.

Sell Germany equities — Export-heavy German industry carries the most direct exposure to any escalation, and EWG has gone nowhere — down 2.3% YTD and 7% below its 52-week high — while carrying the risk.

Watch Volkswagen — Berlin is lobbying to soften rules on Chinese-made cars, which helps VW's China-built imports and hurts its European plants — the stock jumped 3.2% last session on 0.2x book, so the market is betting on the relief side.

Watch BMW — Same cross-current, and BMW's 7.5% weekly gain at 6.7x forward says investors are pricing localisation relief rather than domestic plant pain.

Buy Toyota — One in-house Arene stack across 50 models by 2030 is the cheapest route to recurring, higher-margin features, and the RAV4 redesign shows it already ships — the counter is BYD's 200 updates a year.

Buy Qualcomm — Every software-defined Toyota needs a cockpit and connectivity chip, and Qualcomm at 16.9x forward and 34% below its 52-week high is the cleaner way to own the transition than the OEM.

Buy Cybersecurity — A 100-million-device attack surface is a policy response waiting to happen, and CIBR's 4.6% drop last session hands you the entry rather than the exit.

Buy Palo Alto Networks — Japanese utilities and device makers will buy detection and segmentation from global vendors, and PANW at 70x forward after a 15.3% weekly slide is cheaper than it was — not cheap.

Buy BYD — If the contest is manufacturing scale rather than concept cars, the WSJ column's own logic points to BYD — the strongest read-across in a piece that names no Chinese company directly.

Watch Tesla — Higgins's frame — the Roadster is about China, not thrusters — matches a stock 29% below its 52-week high on 163x forward earnings with no launch date or price to underwrite.

Buy Hedge multi-strategy — The column names no manager, no approach and no returns, so the only tradeable content is the demand for a bond substitute — and QAI at 3% below its 52-week high is where that bid shows up.

Watch US aggregate bonds — The article's premise is that bonds no longer do the job, but that is a claim about the next decade, not a trade today — AGG is 4.5% down YTD and 2% above its 52-week low.

Buy First Solar — More foreign capital into Texas solar supports US module demand, and First Solar at 7.3x forward and 2% above its 52-week low is priced for the policy bear case, not the demand one.