India & rupee
The RBI took its strongest measures since the 2013 taper tantrum and got the rupee's biggest one-day gain in six months, but Indian bonds fell as the defence drained local liquidity. Bloomberg frames the RBI as tightening, not smoothing, with pricey crude and persistent foreign outflows the two forces it's fighting. Amundi's research arm is the other side of the coin: it sees a sharp India rebound once the Iran war ends and oil falls, with flows returning to the large banks first. A policy bounce is not a trend change, and sustaining it is the hard part.
Buy India equities — Amundi names the end of the Iran war as the specific catalyst; INDA at $46.03 is 2% above its 52-week low, so the rebound trade is being set against a washed-out base.
“Amundi SA's research arm sees scope for a rebound in Indian equities after a steep selloff fueled by high oil prices and persistent foreign outflows”
Buy HDFC Bank — Returning foreign flows typically land first in the large liquid Indian banks, and HDB at $22.28 is 41% below its 52-week high with a 16x forward multiple.
Buy India earnings — The same Amundi rebound thesis weighted toward domestically driven earnings; EPI sits 1% above its 52-week low, the most washed-out expression of the call.
Sell Indian rupee — Bloomberg reports the RBI's strongest intervention since 2013 produced the rupee's best day in six months, while the companion piece warns sustaining the gains is harder with crude and outflows still biting.
Watch 7-10yr Treasuries — Bloomberg flags Indian bonds falling as the rupee defence drained liquidity — a domestic story, not a US rates call, so IEF is a watch rather than a trade.