Oil shock
Bloomberg reports Brent climbed above $102 a barrel on Sept 10, with no sign the Iran war is abating and physical energy prices surging. USO closed +2.7% last session and +6.2% over the week, now 3% below its 52-week high. The trade's counterweight is crowded: USO is +117.5% YTD, so airline hedges and TIPS are cleaner ways to express energy inflation.
Buy Oil — Bloomberg reports Brent above $102 with Iran war grinding on; USO +2.7% last session and 3% below its 52-week high, momentum intact but no longer early.
Buy ExxonMobil — Exxon has highest upstream volume leverage among majors; +2.2% last session and 7% below its high gives room before the trade looks exhausted.
Buy TIPS — Sustained energy inflation feeds breakevens TIPS pay on; TIP flat on the week and 5% below high, the under-owned hedge.
Sell Delta Air Lines — Jet fuel tracks Brent, and airlines see cost pressure first; DAL trades 18% below its 52-week high, so the squeeze isn't yet crowded.