Sunday, 26 July 2026 · Weekend Edition · 10:00 London

The $700bn AI bonanza drowns out everything else.

Join Tom, Gerald and Marie for this edition's podcast · 12 min Spotify YouTube

Signals

AI megadeal

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Nvidia join a $700bn US-Korea AI push, signaling massive investment in semiconductor capacity. Nikkei Asia details a government-backed initiative aiming to reshape supply chains. Nvidia at 16x forward P/E and 10% YTD remains the purest AI bet, but SOXX up 76% YTD reflects high expectations—this deal may keep momentum alive.

NVDA

Buy Nvidia — Nvidia is central to the $700bn US-Korea AI initiative, driving chip demand.

$206.8 -0.92%
SOXX

Buy Semiconductors — Broad semiconductor exposure benefits from AI infrastructure buildout; SOXX up 75% YTD already, but the deal justifies further gains.

$527.0 -4.40%
005930.KS

Buy Samsung — Samsung, a key partner, may see a boost from chip manufacturing demand.

000660.KS

Buy SK Hynix — SK Hynix, the memory leader for AI, directly benefits from expanded capex.

Private equity pipelines

Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield took a $16bn stake in Kuwait pipelines, the largest foreign investment in the Gulf state, per FT Companies. The deal signals that geopolitical tensions are forcing asset sales, creating opportunities for Western PE. BX jumped 4.4% last session but is still down 22% YTD—a potential turnaround if infrastructure deals keep flowing.

BX

Buy Blackstone — Blackstone's participation in the $16bn Kuwait deal marks a marquee infrastructure win; BX up 4.4% last session but still 32% below 52-week high.

$130.0 +4.42%
KKR

Buy KKR — KKR's role in the Kuwait pipeline deal enhances its energy infrastructure portfolio; shares up 3.5% last session.

$99.36 +3.53%
BAM

Buy Brookfield — Brookfield expands energy exposure with the Kuwait stake; modest 1.4% gain last session but YTD down 14.5%.

$46.35 +1.40%

Earnings buy calls

Morgan Stanley is telling clients to buy Alibaba, Grab, Natera, Cadence, and Apple before earnings, per CNBC Investing. The bank sees AI cloud upside for Alibaba despite its 27% YTD drop, and strong growth for Grab and Natera. Apple gets a tactical neutral rating but long-term bullish. These picks are contrarian in some cases: BABA down 5.2% this week, GRAB down 8.8%, while NTRA up 16% YTD is riding momentum.

BABA

Buy Alibaba — Morgan Stanley says Alibaba is too compelling to ignore with AI cloud opportunity; shares down 27% YTD offer a discounted entry.

“Morgan Stanley recommends buying Alibaba ahead of earnings”

$112.1 -1.68%
GRAB

Buy Grab — Expected strong Q2 with revenue +22% and buybacks; GRAB down 35% YTD, risk-reward attractive.

“Morgan Stanley says buy Grab ahead of earnings”

$3.31 +0.30%
NTRA

Buy Natera — Leadership in precision oncology and robust growth; NTRA up 16% YTD but still 9% below 52-week high.

“Morgan Stanley increased Natera price target to $310”

$262.0 -1.02%
CDNS

Buy Cadence — Agentic AI moat and margin recovery; shares down 22% from 52-week high.

“Morgan Stanley has Overweight rating on Cadence with PT $370”

$326.2 -1.28%
AAPL

Buy Apple — Tactical setup neutral but long-term bullish on price hikes; AAPL 1% below all-time high.

“Morgan Stanley says Apple fundamentals strong, longer-term positive”

$333.0 +3.53%

Earnings momentum

CNBC Investing flags Amazon, IQVIA, and Vertiv as stocks with strong estimate revisions ahead of earnings this week. Amazon's EPS estimates surged over 400% in 90 days; Vertiv's up 393%. Yet AMZN is flat YTD, suggesting the bar is high; VRT is up 73% YTD, so momentum is priced in. IQVIA remains a recovery play with 80% buy ratings.

AMZN

Buy Amazon — Amazon earnings estimates up 400% and Truist sees 38% upside; shares flat YTD, so potential catch-up if AWS accelerates.

$232.1 -0.66%
IQV

Buy IQVIA — IQVIA underperformed but 80% of analysts rate buy; biotech funding recovery could boost; down 8% YTD.

$208.1 +0.35%
VRT

Buy Vertiv — Vertiv's data center infrastructure pure-play with Nvidia ties; EPS estimates up 393% but shares already up 73% YTD, so risk of high expectations.

$290.4 -4.50%

Trump trade reversal

Bloomberg Markets notes that stocks benefiting from Trump's second term are underperforming, with both retail and institutional flows fading. Industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) were key beneficiaries of deregulation hopes but are now losing steam. XLI is up 15% YTD and near highs, but momentum is waning; XLE is up 30% YTD, suggesting a crowded trade running out of catalysts.

XLI

Sell Industrials — Industrials were a Trump trade favorite; underperformance signals reversal, despite +15% YTD.

$182.7 +0.40%
XLE

Sell Energy — Energy stocks are losing momentum as Trump policy tailwinds fade; XLE up 30% YTD may be peak.

$59.62 +0.40%

Tokenized equity surge

CoinDesk reports Robinhood Chain's real-world assets (RWA) surged fivefold to $70M in two weeks, with tokenized stocks like GameStop, Nvidia, and SpaceX trading millions daily. This validates Robinhood's blockchain strategy, though HOOD stock is down 6.6% last session and 12% YTD, indicating the market hasn't priced this in yet.

HOOD

Buy Robinhood — RWA growth signals successful tokenization platform; HOOD dropped 6.6% last session, presenting a contrarian entry.

$94.91 -6.57%

Most original take

FT Companies · 26 Jul 2026

Investors use crypto exchanges to avoid Chinese controls on AI stocks

Investors are using crypto perpetual futures to gain synthetic exposure to Chinese AI stocks, circumventing China's foreign access restrictions. This unearths a regulatory gray zone and could become a significant on-ramp for offshore capital if not shut down.

Read original ↗

Our view

The day’s signals collectively point to a market that’s all-in on AI infrastructure while souring on Trump’s deregulation narrative. The $700bn US-Korea AI push and a flurry of analyst buy calls ahead of earnings keep the tech juggernaut alive, even as industrials and energy—the classic Trump beneficiaries—lose their bid. Meanwhile, private equity is quietly vacuuming up infrastructure assets like Kuwait’s pipelines, betting that geopolitical chaos creates bargains.

The case against this rosy picture is earnings season itself. Amazon is flat YTD despite 400% estimate increases, Vertiv trades at 33x forward earnings with no room for error, and HOOD is down 6.6% last session even after the tokenization breakthrough. The sell-side is structurally bullish—of course they say buy before earnings—but the real test is whether these beats materialize. If Amazon misses on Thursday, the AI narrative won’t protect its stock.

Notable absence: the press is silent on credit markets. LQD sits at its 52-week low, HYG barely above it, yet Big Tech’s record bond issuance is supposedly ’taking over risk.’ That mismatch—equity exuberance against bond-market stress—is the gap nobody’s talking about. A sudden widening of spreads would catch equities off guard.

The cleanest expression isn’t a single ticker; it’s the dispersion between tech winners and Trump losers. Long SOXX / short XLI pairs the AI boom against the policy fade without taking a view on the broad market. That trade benefits from the very momentum rotation the press is documenting today.

Yesterday's signals, today

From the Weekend Edition on 25 Jul 2026 — 0/2 signals moved in the predicted direction.

Today's scan: 70 articles considered · 7 surfaced · across 10 publishers

Generated Sun 26 Jul 2026 9:04am London · 17,170 views

Bloomberg Markets · CNBC Investing · CNBC Markets · CoinDesk · FT Alphaville · FT Companies · FT Lex · FT Markets · MarketWatch Top · Nikkei Asia · SCMP Business · The Information · WSJ Business · WSJ Markets

Next edition: London Edition tomorrow at 07:30 London.

Methodology
Share this edition