Thursday, 25 June 2026 · London Edition · 07:30 London

Micron's profit surge revives AI. The dollar's just getting started.

Join Tom, Gerald and Marie for this edition's podcast · 11 min Spotify YouTube

Signals

⚡ Convergence radar: Buy MU×4Buy SMH×4Buy QQQ×4

AI chip bonanza

Micron reported a 15-fold profit surge, beating estimates and forecasting sustained AI memory demand. FT and WSJ both flag the beat as a tranquilliser on AI doubters, sending Nasdaq futures higher and lifting Asian semiconductor-heavy markets. SK Hynix's planned $29 billion US listing adds to the capital-raising frenzy, signaling long-term conviction. The SMH semiconductor ETF is already up 65.8% YTD, so much of the good news is priced, but the catalysts are fresh.

MU

Buy Micron — Micron's 15-fold profit beat fuels the AI memory demand story; the stock is up 232% YTD but still 14% below its 52-week high, leaving room to run.

$1049 -0.31%
SMH

Buy Semiconductor ETF — Semiconductor ETF up 65.8% YTD, just 8% from its peak, as Micron and SK Hynix news drive sector-wide momentum.

$618.9 -0.50%
QQQ

Buy Nasdaq 100 ETF — Nasdaq 100 up 15.9% YTD and near highs; renewed AI confidence could push it to new records.

$710.6 -0.42%
NVDA

Buy Nvidia — Nvidia up 5.4% YTD, historically leveraged to AI memory demand, and the Micron beat revives its growth narrative.

$199.0 -0.50%
AMD

Buy AMD — AMD up 132.6% YTD, another beneficiary of the AI chip cycle, though its valuation (fwd P/E 39.5) reflects high expectations.

$519.7 -0.02%
EWY

Buy South Korea ETF — Korea, a semiconductor-heavy market, surges as Micron news lifts the sector; EWY is up 93% YTD.

$197.3 +2.63%
EWT

Buy Taiwan ETF — Taiwan, another semiconductor hub, benefits from AI demand; EWT is up 61.7% YTD.

$104.7 -0.49%

Debasement trade unwinds

Gold, silver, and bitcoin tumbled as markets price in Fed rate hikes, unwinding the debasement trade. Bloomberg traces the catalyst to Kevin Warsh's hawkish influence, while CoinDesk notes the sell-off from 2025 highs. Gold is down 8.1% YTD, accelerating with a 5.8% weekly drop, and silver plunged 21.2% YTD. The dollar is rising as the anti-debasement play, with DXY up 3.1% YTD and room to run.

DXY

Buy US Dollar Index — Dollar up 3.1% YTD, breaking higher as markets price hawkish Fed; a further 6% rise to the 52-week high would confirm a strong-dollar regime.

$101.5 -0.09%
GLD

Sell Gold — Gold down 8.1% YTD and 5.8% this week; the debasement unwind has momentum, with Bloomberg citing Warsh as the trigger.

$365.9 -3.02%
SLV

Sell Silver — Silver down 21.2% YTD, amplifying gold's move as the speculative froth clears.

$51.78 -7.09%
BTC-USD

Sell Bitcoin — Bitcoin is a core debasement asset; its tumble alongside metals confirms the trade is cracking under rate expectations.

Mag Seven stumble

WSJ argues the Magnificent Seven stocks are losing their one-decision status. Microsoft is down 22.7% YTD and Apple up only 8.1% as growth disappoints. The AI enthusiasm that drove them now faces valuation gravity. Nvidia remains the AI outlier, but even it is 16% below its 52-week high, creating a conflicting signal with the Micron-driven AI bounce.

AAPL

Sell Apple — Apple up only 8.1% YTD, underperforming in the Mag Seven, with the 'one decision' trade fracturing.

$293.1 -0.41%
MSFT

Sell Microsoft — Microsoft down 22.7% YTD, deeply in the red as cloud growth decelerates and AI capex questions linger.

$365.5 -2.27%
NVDA

Watch Nvidia — Nvidia is caught between the Mag Seven rotation and the Micron-fueled AI revival; watch for direction.

$199.0 -0.50%

Robotaxi race

MarketWatch highlights Uber's aggressive $500 million checks to lock in robotaxi fleets, positioning it as the likely gatekeeper even as Tesla and Waymo compete. Uber is down 10.9% YTD but surged 6% last session on the news, suggesting the market is waking up to its AV strategy. Tesla faces a longer horizon, and Waymo remains an Alphabet project with unclear payoff.

UBER

Buy Uber — Uber down 10.9% YTD, but the robotaxi spending spree is underappreciated and could drive a re-rating.

$73.85 +6.00%
TSLA

Watch Tesla — Tesla's robotaxi plans are still nascent; the stock is down 14.3% YTD and needs execution evidence.

$375.5 -1.59%
GOOGL

Watch Alphabet — Waymo is a small part of Alphabet, which is up 9.6% YTD; watch for any spin-off or funding news.

$345.3 -0.23%

Earnings movers

CNBC's premarket roundup captures a mixed bag of earnings reactions: Cerebras plunged to a 52-week low on a loss and margin compression; FedEx slid despite beating, as a potential spin-off disappointed; Wendy's screamed higher on a short-squeeze frenzy; Arm rose on analyst upgrades; and Take-Two gained on GTA 6 presale start. These are stock-specific moves, not broad signals.

WEN

Buy Wendy's — Wendy's skyrocketed 25.7% last session on a Reddit-driven short squeeze; 23% short interest suggests more forced buying.

$7.86 +25.66%
ARM

Buy Arm Holdings — Arm up 213% YTD, analyst upgrades on agentic AI demand support a rebound from the weekly pullback.

$359.1 -2.00%
TTWO

Buy Take-Two — Take-Two down 6.3% YTD but GTA 6 presale news could reverse that; the stock popped 3% premarket.

$235.8 -2.83%
CBRS

Sell Cerebras — Cerebras at a 52-week low after earnings miss and margin guide-down; the AI hype has fully deflated for this name.

$182.3 -19.61%
FDX

Sell FedEx — FedEx fell on spin-off disappointment despite an earnings beat, reversing some of its 34% YTD gain.

$316.8 -0.13%

Banks ace stress tests

The Fed's annual stress test found US banks would lose $700bn in a severe crash, but they passed easily, helped by pre-released scenarios. FT and WSJ report that JPMorgan and Bank of America aced the test, allowing them to boost dividends and buybacks. The bank ETF (KBE) is up 10.3% YTD and at a 52-week high, while XLF remains cheap at -2.2% YTD, presenting a catch-up play.

KBE

Buy Bank ETF — Bank ETF up 10.3% YTD, breaking to new highs on stress-test clearance; capital return catalysts are clear.

$67.49 +0.97%
JPM

Buy JPMorgan — JPMorgan up only 2.4% YTD, cheap at 14.1x forward P/E, with buybacks now greenlit post-test.

$333.4 -0.21%
BAC

Buy Bank of America — Bank of America up 3.2% YTD, similarly undervalued at 11.4x forward P/E, and stress-test pass removes a risk overhang.

$57.73 -0.31%
XLF

Buy Financial ETF — Financial ETF down 2.2% YTD, cheap at 16.9x trailing, offering catch-up potential as bank-specific gains broaden.

$53.72 -0.30%

Short duration trade

T. Rowe Price, a major asset manager, recommends shorter-duration bonds, warning that inflation risk is underestimated due to manufacturing recovery and rising raw material costs. The WSJ flags the call as rate-hike fears mount. TLT is barely positive YTD and only 5% below its 52-week high, leaving room for a downdraft if long yields spike.

SHV

Buy Short-duration Treasuries — SHV is essentially flat YTD, offering safety as a hideout from duration risk.

$110.3 +0.01%
TLT

Sell Long-duration Treasuries — TLT up only 0.4% YTD, vulnerable to further downside if inflation persists and rates rise, per T. Rowe.

$87.38 +1.37%
IEF

Sell Intermediate Treasuries — IEF down 1.4% YTD, and even intermediate duration is disfavored by T. Rowe's call.

$94.73 +0.65%

Dassault wins EU case

FT exclusive: Dassault Aviation won a European court ruling that private jets can be considered environmentally sustainable, overturning Brussels' exclusion from green rules. This removes a regulatory overhang for business jet manufacturers. Dassault shares are up 5.2% YTD but still 19% below their 52-week high, leaving room for a re-rating.

AM.PA

Buy Dassault Aviation — Dassault up 5.2% YTD but 19% below its high; the legal win eases regulatory risk and could trigger a re-rating.

€295.0 -0.54%

Most original take

Ye Xie, Anya Andrianova, George Lei · Bloomberg Markets · 24 Jun 2026

The Debasement Trade Is Unraveling and Kevin Warsh Is One Big Reason

The debasement trade—short USD, long gold/crypto—is unraveling, and Kevin Warsh, the likely next Fed chair, is a key reason. Warsh's hawkish leanings are repricing rate expectations, directly attacking the debasement thesis. Gold and bitcoin tumbled as markets shift to a strong-dollar regime, and this unwind may have further to run given crowded positioning.

Read original ↗

Our view

Today's signals capture a market split in two. On one side, Micron's 15-fold profit surge—and the $29bn SK Hynix listing—screams that AI capital spending is far from done. The SMH semiconductor ETF is up 66% YTD and within 8% of its record; the AI trade is finding a second wind. On the other, the debasement trade is crumbling: gold is down 8% this year and slid another 3% last session, while the dollar pushes higher. The two narratives aren't contradictory—they're a regime of sector-level dispersion where real rates bite gold but AI demand supports earnings. The banks passing stress tests with ease only reinforces the cyclical-over-defensive rotation.

The case against this read is that the Micron beat is already priced into stretched valuations. The SMH trades at over 40x trailing earnings, and the AI capex cycle is entering its third year. A single earnings beat doesn't answer whether hyperscaler spending can sustain this pace. Meanwhile, gold's sell-off has taken it 22% above its 52-week low—hardly deeply oversold. If inflation data later this week surprises to the upside, the debasement trade could roar back, catching dollar longs offside.

Noticeably absent from the coverage is any discussion of the Treasury market beyond T. Rowe's duration call. The TLT eked out a 1.4% gain last session, but yields on the long end haven't spiked. If the Fed is truly tightening, we'd expect a much steeper move in rates. That silence suggests the bond market isn't convinced yet, and the dollar's advance may be more about positioning than fundamentals.

The cleanest expression of this divergence isn't a single ticker but a pair trade: long SMH against short GLD. It isolates the AI-vs.-debasement split without relying on rates or FX. It's a bet that the present regime—technology capex holding up while commodity inflation fears fade—persists through the summer.

Yesterday's signals, today

From the London Edition on 24 Jun 2026 — 0/1 signals moved in the predicted direction.

Share this edition