Saturday, 9 May 2026 · New York Edition

Blowout earnings, Intel's Apple deal and AI infrastructure financing push stocks to records; Iran war strains commodities and shipping.

Signals

Stronger colour: a source explicitly recommended the trade.
Weaker colour: we inferred the trade from the coverage.

Stock rally

Blowout earnings exceeded expectations, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records despite the Iran war. Bloomberg notes the rally is broad-based, with QQQ up 2.3% today and 16% YTD, while SPY gained 0.8% on the day, sitting at a 52-week high. Intel's Apple deal added to sector euphoria, lifting SMH 4.9% to a new peak. The next catalyst is whether inflation data disrupts the momentum.

SPY

Buy S&P 500 ETF — Broad earnings strength supports index gains; SPY +0.8% 1d, +8.0% YTD near 52-week high.

$737.6 +0.83%

QQQ

Buy Nasdaq 100 ETF — Tech earnings particularly strong, driving Nasdaq higher; QQQ +2.3% 1d, +16% YTD.

$711.2 +2.34%

SMH

Buy Semiconductor ETF — Semiconductor ETF up 4.9% 1d, +51.8% YTD, at new highs, lifted by Intel surge and AI capex.

$566.5 +4.90%

NACHO trade

MarketWatch introduces the NACHO trade—long oil, short bonds, long gold—as Wall Street bets on persistent inflation. Iran's Hormuz blockade adds supply risk: SCMP reports 100 Hong Kong-linked ships stranded, and FT says LNG carriers are testing the blockade. USO is down 9.5% this week but still +94% YTD, offering a pullback entry; TLT at its 52-week low makes the short bond leg crowded; GLD +4.6% this week supports the long gold component. XLE, the energy sector ETF, and LNG, a US exporter, benefit from higher oil and gas prices.

USO

Buy Oil ETF — NACHO trade explicitly includes long oil; USO YTD +93.7% despite weekly drop, supply disruption tailwind.

$133.6 -1.02%

GLD

Buy Gold ETF — Gold is a key NACHO component; GLD +4.6% this week, up 8.9% YTD, benefiting from inflation and geopolitics.

$433.8 +0.48%

XLE

Buy Energy Sector ETF — Energy stocks gain from rising crude; XLE -0.45% 1d but +22% YTD, direct beneficiary of elevated oil.

$55.70 -0.45%

TLT

Sell Long-duration Treasuries — NACHO trades short bonds; TLT at 52-week low, just 3% above low, rally risk but trend persists.

$86.08 +0.51%

LNG

Watch Cheniere Energy — LNG exporters could gain if Middle East supply disrupted, but shipments may resume; LNG -2.7% 1d, 12% down this week amid uncertainty.

$240.1 -2.70%

Intel turnaround

Intel shares surged 14% to $124.9 following news of an Apple manufacturing partnership, a move MarketWatch calls unprecedented. INTC is up 217% YTD and 30% this week, with a forward P/E of 82x, suggesting high expectations for its foundry pivot. Apple gained 2.05% on the day, near its 52-week high, benefiting from supply-chain diversification. The deal highlights US chipmaking resurgence.

MarketWatch Top: Intel’s stock achieves a never-before-seen feat as Apple enthusiasm builds

INTC

Buy Intel — Apple partnership marks potential turnaround; INTC +14% 1d, massive YTD but forward P/E 82x, implying further execution needed.

$124.9 +13.96%

AAPL

Hold Apple — Apple diversifying chip supply is positive but not a game-changer; AAPL +2.05% 1d, near 52-week high.

$293.3 +2.05%

Private credit AI

Bloomberg reports Apollo and Blackstone are negotiating a $35 billion private credit package for Broadcom's AI infrastructure. AVGO rose 4.2% on the day to $430, up 24% YTD with a forward P/E of 23.7x, reflecting insatiable AI demand. APO and BX benefit from fee income; APO also +4.2% today but YTD -9.1%, still cheap at 12.5x forward P/E. The deal signals private markets are financing the AI boom.

Bloomberg Markets: Apollo, Blackstone Weigh $35 Billion Financing for Broadcom

AVGO

Buy Broadcom — Broadcom AI infrastructure gets $35B credit line; AVGO +4.2% 1d, 23.7x forward P/E attractive for AI chip play.

$430.0 +4.23%

APO

Buy Apollo Global — Apollo as lender gains fee income; APO +4.2% 1d, YTD -9.1%, cheap at 12.5x forward P/E.

$133.2 +4.23%

Buy Blackstone — Blackstone similar; BX +1.18% 1d, YTD -22.1% but still 16.4x forward P/E.

$123.8 +1.18%

Crypto adoption

BlackRock filed for new tokenized Treasury funds, CME plans bitcoin volatility futures, and a Binance survey shows 77% of users are in emerging markets, up from 49% in 2020. These developments signal broad institutional and retail adoption. Coinbase and Strategy (MSTR) are proxies; COIN +4.25% today but YTD -15%, while MSTR +4.3% and +19.4% YTD. Ethereum underpins most tokenization and DeFi use cases.

BTC-USD

Buy Bitcoin — Institutional products and EM adoption boost Bitcoin demand; crypto sentiment positive across multiple news.

ETH-USD

Buy Ethereum — Ethereum benefits from tokenization push and DeFi growth; core smart contract platform.

COIN

Buy Coinbase — Coinbase benefits from crypto trading and custody; COIN +4.25% 1d, down YTD, potential re-rating on adoption.

$201.2 +4.25%

MSTR

Buy Strategy — Strategy (MSTR) gains as a Bitcoin proxy; MSTR +4.3% today, +19.4% YTD, riding institutional adoption.

$187.6 +4.31%

Sulfuric acid crunch

WSJ reports Iran war and Chinese export restrictions have created a sulfuric acid shortage, threatening copper leaching and fertilizer production. FCX, up 11% this week and 19% YTD, may face production hit yet is near its 52-week high; CPER, the copper ETF, similarly elevated. Mosaic, a fertilizer maker, is down 3.1% today and at its 52-week low, already reflecting cost pressures. The shortage could intensify if conflict persists.

WSJ Markets: Iran War Puts the World’s Most Used Chemical in Short Supply

FCX

Sell Freeport-McMoRan — Sulfuric acid shortage risks copper output; FCX +10.9% 1w, 75% above 52wL, vulnerable to production halt.

$61.65 +1.72%

CPER

Sell Copper ETF — Copper ETF up 7.6% 1w, near highs, could fall on supply disruption from acid shortage.

$38.27 +2.46%

MOS

Sell Mosaic — Phosphate producer hit by acid input; MOS -3.1% 1d, at 52-week low, further downside likely.

$22.19 -3.14%

Gold miner insider

FT notes Pan African Resources' chair sold shares amid the gold bull run, a potential red flag. PAF.L fell 3.25% today but still up 26% YTD; gold itself (GLD) remains strong. The sale could indicate overvaluation or personal liquidity needs. Given the gold rally, insider selling at a miner warrants caution.

FT Markets: Directors’ Deals: Pan African chair sells amid the gold bull run

GLD

Hold Gold ETF — Gold's bull run intact, but insider sale at a miner does not directly impact gold; GLD +4.6% 1w, hold.

$433.8 +0.48%

PAF.L

Sell Pan African Resources — Insider selling during gold bull run is bearish signal; PAF.L -3.25% 1d, still rich, may be overextended.

$151.1 -3.25%

Most original take

Ed Ballard · WSJ Markets · 9 May 2026

Iran War Puts the World’s Most Used Chemical in Short Supply

The Iran war and Chinese export curbs have disrupted the sulfuric acid market, the world's most used chemical. The shortage per WSJ threatens to paralyze copper leaching and phosphate fertilizer output, industries that depend on this invisible input. Most investors focus on oil disruptions; this story highlights a second-order supply shock that could ripple through mining and agriculture, creating overlooked short opportunities in copper miners and fertilizer stocks.

Read original ↗

Our take

Today's signals collectively describe a market caught between earnings euphoria and commodity-cost stress. Stocks are at records on blowout results and AI deals, but SPY's 27.7x trail P/E and SMH's stratospheric 46.6x trail P/E leave little valuation cushion. The NACHO trade—long oil, short bonds—captures the inflation regime, with USO having nearly doubled YTD and TLT languishing near its 52-week low. Meanwhile, private credit is funding Broadcom's $35B AI build-out, underscoring that capex is the primary equity narrative. On the commodity front, sulfuric acid shortages threaten copper and fertilizer output, though FCX's 11% weekly surge suggests markets are not pricing the disruption.

The biggest risk to this sunny view is a sharp Treasury rally. TLT is 3% above its 52-week low; short-interest is likely extreme. Any dovish Fed surprise or flight-to-safety could trigger a violent short squeeze, unraveling the bond short leg. Stocks look extended: Intel at 82x forward P/E after a 217% YTD run is priced for flawless execution, and the semiconductor ETF at a fresh all-time high could reverse fast if geopolitics worsen. The sulfuric acid shortage thesis may be moot if Chinese exports resume, which would lift copper miners quickly.

Absent from today's coverage is any mention of the Federal Reserve's next policy signal or upcoming CPI data, though the NACHO trade is effectively an inflation bet. The press is also silent on Chinese stimulus measures that could offset war-driven commodity cost pressures; a surprise package would undercut both the copper short and the bonds short. The cleanest cross-current trade is to pair long USO against short FCX and short MOS—long energy, short acid-sensitive industrial inputs.