Saturday, 9 May 2026

The Strait of Hormuz stays shut for a third day, Apple and Intel plan a chip collaboration, and AMD/Micron surge on renewed AI data-center optimism — geopolitical supply risk meets tech fervor.

Signals

Stronger colour: a source explicitly recommended the trade.
Weaker colour: we inferred the trade from the coverage.

Oil Supply

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed since Tuesday after a US-Iran clash, and a Goldman Sachs poll shows Wall Street expects the disruption to persist into the second half of 2026. WSJ separately warns that 20% of the world's exported jet fuel is at risk, pressuring airlines. The cumulative effect supports a sustained supply shock, though USO's 9.5% weekly decline suggests near-term demand fears or profit-taking may delay upside.

USO

Buy Crude oil — Bloomberg confirms Hormuz closure and Goldman poll expects prolonged disruption, supporting crude; USO down 9.5% this week may offer entry point if supply stress persists.

$133.6 -1.02%

XLE

Buy Energy stocks — Energy equities directly benefit from oil price surge; XLE YTD +22% already reflects some premium but further upside if disruption extends.

$55.70 -0.45%

JETS

Sell Airlines — Jet fuel shortage raises costs and could cut airline earnings; JETS up 8% this week on travel demand, but fuel risk underpriced.

$27.48 -0.40%

Tech Chips

WSJ reports that Apple and Intel plan to collaborate on chips, a significant win for Intel's foundry ambitions and a supply-chain diversification move for Apple. Two WSJ sections carry the story, lending credibility. INTC surged 13.96% today, likely pricing in the deal alongside other factors, while AAPL rose 2%. The partnership could erode Apple's reliance on other chipmakers over time.

AAPL

Buy Apple — Two WSJ sources confirm Apple's chip partnership with Intel benefits both; AAPL 1d +2%, fwd P/E 30.7, still premium but strategic gain.

$293.3 +2.05%

INTC

Buy Intel — Intel foundry gets a marquee win; INTC 1d +13.96%, most of the news is priced but long-term transformation thesis strengthens.

$124.9 +13.96%

AI Semis

AMD and Micron shares surged double-digits on May 8 as an analyst cited 'a dramatic return to AI data-center optimism.' MU +15.5%, AMD +11.4% on the day, driving SMH to a fresh 52-week high. The move suggests AI infrastructure spending fears have reversed, though valuations are stretched: AMD at 35x forward P/E, MU at 7.3x (but trailing 35x). The rally may be momentum-driven but reflects real demand acceleration.

MarketWatch Top: AMD, Micron shares surge on a big day for chip-sector outperformance

AMD

Buy AMD — AMD's data-center GPU prospects get a boost; up 11.4% today, 0% below 52w high — momentum crowd is in, so trim or set stops.

$455.2 +11.44%

Buy Micron — Micron's memory pricing tied to AI demand; at 7.3x forward but up 15.5% in a day, some upside priced, but cycle still early.

$746.8 +15.52%

SMH

Buy Semiconductor ETF — Semiconductor ETF riding the wave; at 52-week high, conviction low as it's crowded.

$566.5 +4.90%

Private Credit

Bloomberg reports Apollo and Blackstone are in talks for a $35 billion financing package for Broadcom, underscoring private credit's growing role in funding AI infrastructure. AVGO up 4.2% today, APO and BX modestly positive, suggesting the market sees the deal as a vote of confidence in Broadcom's AI build-out and a fee opportunity for lenders.

Bloomberg Markets: Apollo, Blackstone Weigh $35 Billion Financing for Broadcom

AVGO

Buy Broadcom — Broadcom benefits from massive financing tailwind; up 4.2% today, 2% below 52wH, deal could unlock further gains.

$430.0 +4.23%

APO

Buy Apollo — Apollo as lead lender signals private credit muscle; down 9% YTD, cheap at 12.5x forward, but high risk.

$133.2 +4.23%

Buy Blackstone — Blackstone involvement similar to Apollo; down 22% YTD, may be a value play if private credit cycle turns.

$123.8 +1.18%

Consumer Slowdown

U. Michigan consumer sentiment hit a record low in early May, with MarketWatch citing high gas prices as the primary driver. The reading was the lowest among Republicans since Trump's election, signaling broad-based gloom. XLY has languished with a 1.6% YTD gain despite market highs, and record-low sentiment risks further drag on discretionary spending.

MarketWatch Top: Gloom deepens for consumers in early May due to high gas prices

USO

Buy Crude oil — Gas prices are hurting sentiment, oil exposure benefits; USO down 9.5% this week, so higher gas prices may not lift crude near-term.

$133.6 -1.02%

XLY

Sell Consumer discretionary — Consumer discretionary vulnerable to spending weakness; XLY up only 1.6% YTD, poor breadth; short conviction low but narrative building.

$120.2 +0.27%

Turkey Missile Risk

FT reports Turkey unveiled an ICBM claimed to be capable of striking the US mainland, escalating Turkey's missile program and potentially straining NATO relations. The move is likely exaggerated by promotional AI video, but the symbolism introduces a new geopolitical risk factor for Turkish assets and defense companies. TUR trades near 52-week highs, so any sanctions backlash could trigger a sharp reversal.

FT Companies: Turkey unveils new ICBM — touted as able to hit the US mainland

ITA

Buy Defense stocks — Defense spending proxy rises on threat perception; ITA flat YTD, potential catch-up if tensions broaden.

$223.5 +0.44%

GLD

Buy Gold — Gold as safe haven; up 8.9% YTD, still 15% below 52wH, room to run.

$433.8 +0.48%

TUR

Sell Turkey equities — Turkish equities face sanction risk if the US reacts; TUR up 24.7% YTD, 1% below 52wH, crowded long at risk.

$43.56 +0.69%

Quantum Computing

Bloomberg reports Quantinuum, backed by Honeywell, filed for a US IPO, aiming to capitalize on quantum computing enthusiasm. HON, IONQ, and RGTI all saw modest gains. The IPO could bring attention to the nascent quantum sector, though no pricing details are available, making it a speculative catalyst.

Bloomberg Markets: Honeywell-Backed Computing Firm Quantinuum Files for US IPO

HON

Buy Honeywell — Honeywell's stake in Quantinuum could realize value; HON flat YTD, catalyst potential.

$213.1 -1.37%

IONQ

Buy IonQ — Quantum peer IONQ up 3.3% today, down 42% from 52wH, sector revival possible.

$49.24 +3.27%

RGTI

Buy Rigetti — Rigetti down 67% from 52wH, high-beta play on quantum sentiment.

$18.94 +3.27%

Earnings Momentum

CNBC highlights Applied Materials, Constellation Energy, and Ross Stores as stocks with earnings momentum reporting next week. AMAT surged 6% today ahead of results, CEG down 2.5% but with positive momentum, and ROST flat. The pattern suggests pre-earnings positioning, but recent price moves may have front-run the good news.

CNBC Investing: Applied Materials is among the stocks reporting next week with earnings momentum

AMAT

Buy Applied Materials — Applied Materials at 52-week high, up 6% today — much good news likely priced, so low conviction long into earnings.

$435.4 +6.07%

CEG

Buy Constellation Energy — Constellation down 17% YTD, momentum suggests upside surprise possible, value play after selloff.

$303.6 -2.46%

ROST

Buy Ross Stores — Ross Stores near 52-week high, up 23.6% YTD, momentum play but stretched.

$225.8 +0.59%

AI Spillover

MarketWatch notes that AI infrastructure investment returns remain attractive but increasingly flow to Asian companies rather than US ones. This suggests a geographic rotation: FXI, the China large-cap ETF, could benefit, while US-centric QQQ may underperform. FXI is down 6.5% YTD and trades near its 52-week low, offering value if Asia captures more AI spending.

MarketWatch Top: The AI marathon’s biggest threat suggests the finish line is nowhere in sight

FXI

Buy China equities — AI spending benefits shifting to Asia could lift Chinese tech; FXI down 6.5% YTD, near 52-week low, value play.

$37.24 +0.13%

Most original take

FT Companies · 8 May 2026

Turkey unveils new ICBM — touted as able to hit the US mainland

Turkey's unveiling of an ICBM capable of reaching the US introduces a new, underappreciated geopolitical risk. The move escalates Turkey's missile program and could strain NATO relations, with potential defense spending boosts and safe-haven inflows. The promotional AI video may exaggerate capabilities, but the symbolism alone forces a repricing of Turkish asset risk and defense sector opportunities.

Read original ↗

Our take

Today's signals paint a market split between geopolitical energy shocks and tech euphoria. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a third day after the US-Iran clash, with Goldman predicting disruption into H2, yet USO is down 9.5% this week — suggesting demand fears from record-low consumer sentiment (XLY up just 1.6% YTD) are capping oil's upside. Simultaneously, the Apple-Intel chip partnership and AMD/Micron surges on AI data-center optimism push semiconductor stocks to 52-week highs, a crowded trade that may not sustain if macro gloom deepens.

The bear case: energy's recent pullback despite supply threats signals that the market fears recession more than shortages. If consumer spending cracks further, XLY shorts win and XLE longs lose. On the tech side, SMH at its 52-week high and MU up 15.5% in a day leave little margin for error; any AI sentiment souring could trigger a sharp reversal. The quiet dollar is a warning — haven flows are bypassing the greenback, perhaps questioning its safe-haven status.

What's missing: no source addresses the Fed's reaction to rising energy prices and falling sentiment. With consumer gloom and oil-driven inflation, the word 'stagflation' is absent. Also, the US bond market moves are not covered — if the 10-year yield rises on inflation fear, tech multiples would compress. That missing piece could flip the regime.

The cleanest expression is a barbell: long energy (USO, XLE) as supply shock hedge, short consumer discretionary (XLY) on sentiment, with a side of gold (GLD) for Turkey and general geopolitical risk. Avoid chasing the semiconductor peak; book gains on SMH and wait for a pullback.