Apollo CEO slams retail PE mark-ups; Iran war boosts Shell, defense, but oil costs squeeze miners.

Sell Global Listed Private Equity — Two FT sources: Rowan's attack on inflated retail marks could trigger regulatory scrutiny and revaluation risk, directly hitting the holdings of listed PE funds; PSP is the cleanest exposure.

Hold Apollo Global Management — The CEO's own firm is at the center of the controversy, creating headline risk, but Apollo may pre-empt regulation; hold until the dust settles.

Hold Blackstone — Blackstone has large retail PE offerings facing the same mark-up scrutiny; the shares are 34% below 52-week high, reflecting existing caution, so a collapse is unlikely.

Buy BAE Systems — BAE's explicit 7–9% sales growth guidance signals enduring defense demand; the stock is up only 0.6% on the day, leaving room for re-rating.

Buy Rheinmetall — Rheinmetall's ammunition plant recovery and new naval/vehicle orders point to capacity expansion; the shares are 28% below 52-week highs, offering a better entry than many defense names.

Buy Shell — Bloomberg reports a trading-driven profit surge; no figures provided, but the war catalyst remains — short-term momentum favors Shell despite the qualitative nature of the report.

Buy US Oil Fund — USO’s 7% drop may reflect premature ceasefire optimism; if fighting continues, supply risk reprices oil higher, and today’s dip is a tactical long.

Hold Gold Fields — Two WSJ sources confirm the cost warning; after a 10.7% surge, the risk-reward is balanced — gold exposure is better captured through unhedged vehicles.

Hold Gold — Gold benefits from war hedging but higher miner costs erode sector margins; GLD offers pure bullion exposure without the operational drag.

Buy Swiss Re — Single-source WSJ report: low catastrophe frequency and favourable mortality are providing earnings tailwinds; near-term momentum is positive, though the cycle could turn.

Buy Roche — WSJ business report: the $1.05B acquisition expands AI capabilities in a fast-growing market; shares are only 1.5% higher, not stretched.

Watch Eurozone Bonds — If oil continues to fall on ceasefire hopes, bond yields should decline (prices up); if conflict re-escalates, the reverse holds — a clear binary catalysed by oil.

Watch US Oil Fund — Oil itself is the trigger, and the 7% drop could reverse on any negative headline; positioning either side requires monitoring of IR reply news flow.

Watch Copper — Copper prices edged lower on uncertainty; a deal could reignite industrial demand and rally metal, while a breakdown triggers safe-haven flows — both are possible.

Watch Alcoa — Aluminium prices are tied to Iran supply risk and energy costs; the stock’s 159% above 52-week low shows room for a reversal if hopes fade.

Watch Base Metals — Broad base metals basket awaits the same binary outcome; the fund is just 3% below 52-week highs, suggesting limited upside unless the deal closes quickly.

Watch FTSE 100 — UK equities would rally on a deal-driven drop in energy costs, but the FTSE is heavily weighted towards oil majors, creating a natural hedge; watch for direction relative to oil.

Watch EM Dollar Bonds — Spreads have tightened sharply on Iran hopes, but a failure would likely blow out spreads; EMB is 2% below its 52-week high — the rally is priced for success.